2010 Tony Awards: Winner Picks & Predictions

The Tony Awards are just five days away, and as you prepare for the big night, check out Stage Rush’s predictions of who will win and who should. Don’t forget to tune into Stage Rush’s live blog of the Tony Awards during the telecast this Sunday, where I’ll be reporting LIVE from the Tony press room on all the excitement!

Best Play
In The Next Room (or the vibrator play) by Sarah Ruhl
Next Fall by Geoffrey Nauffts
Red by John Logan (WILL WIN)
Time Stands Still by Donald Margulies

This race is a close one between Red and Time Stands Still. Don’t know what will tip the scales here—both have critical and box office success. Some might say Time has lost momentum, since it’s been closed since late March, yet it’s reopening in October. Due to far more nominations, Red is most likely to take it.

Best Musical
American Idiot (SHOULD WIN)
Fela!
Memphis (WILL WIN)
Million Dollar Quartet

With such few nominations and lowered buzz, American Idiot won’t have enough strength to take the prize from Memphis, which has gotten an intense media push since the nominations.

Best Revival of a Play
Fences by August Wilson (WILL WIN)
Lend Me A Tenor by Ken Ludwig
The Royal Family by George S. Kaufman and Edna Ferber
A View From The Bridge by Arthur Miller

Everyone’s a strong contender here, but the star power of Fences (and timeliness, since it’s still running) makes it the shoo-in.

Best Revival of a Musical
Finian’s Rainbow (SHOULD WIN)
La Cage aux Folles (WILL WIN)
A Little Night Music
Ragtime

With so many nominations, La Cage is set up to take this one, easily. I would throw the statue to Finian’s though. It took a lot of risk to revive a strange, little-known musical, and the cast was so powerful. La Cage was revived less than six years ago—it’s time to retire this show for while.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Jude Law, Hamlet
Alfred Molina, Red
Liev Schreiber, A View From The Bridge
Denzel Washington, Fences (WILL WIN)
Christopher Walken, A Behanding In Spokane

Anyone here could win, particularly Molina and Schreiber (and even Walken, as a lifetime achievement nod), but the momentum that Fences has will ensure Washington the win.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Viola Davis, Fences (WILL WIN)
Valerie Harper, Looped
Linda Lavin, Collected Stories
Laura Linney, Time Stands Still
Jan Maxwell, The Royal Family

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Kelsey Grammer, La Cage aux Folles
Sean Hayes, Promises, Promises (WILL WIN)
Douglas Hodge, La Cage aux Folles (SHOULD WIN)
Chad Kimball, Memphis
Sahr Ngauja, Fela!

My riskiest prediction of the bunch. Hodge is widely seen as the front runner, but call me crazy, I think Hayes will take it. He’s hosting the ceremony, he’s generated a ton of sympathy from that nasty Newsweek article, and he is incredibly charming in Promises, a show that is seen as having few bright spots (I disagree). Think when David Hyde Pierce beat out Raul Esparza for Company in 2007. It was the shock of the night and I think the same thing will happen this year.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Kate Baldwin, Finian’s Rainbow
Montego Glover, Memphis (WILL WIN)
Christiane Noll, Ragtime
Sherie Rene Scott, Everyday Rapture
Catherine Zeta-Jones, A Little Night Music

An incredibly weak category this year. None of these performances could even come close to last year’s winner, Alice Ripley (Next to Normal). But Glover will win, because she belts a lot in the show, and Memphis has got great momentum. Her charming demeanor and newcomer status doesn’t hurt.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
David Alan Grier, Race
Stephen McKinley Henderson, Fences
Jon Michael Hill, Superior Donuts
Stephen Kunken, Enron
Eddie Redmayne, Red (WILL WIN)

This race is between Redmayne and Henderson. I give the edge to Radmayne, as he won the Olivier for the same role on the West End.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Maria Dizzia, In The Next Room (or the vibrator play) (SHOULD WIN)
Rosemary Harris, The Royal Family
Jessica Hecht, A View From The Bridge
Scarlett Johansson, A View From The Bridge
Jan Maxwell, Lend Me A Tenor (WILL WIN)

Maxwell is nominated twice, which is a great accomplishment, and this will be her victory. My personal vote would go to Dizzia, as she added all that was charming and quirky to a lukewarm play. Honorable mention to Hecht for her devastated performance in Bridge.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Kevin Chamberlin, The Addams Family
Robin De Jesus, La Cage aux Folles (WILL WIN)
Christopher Fitzgerald, Finian’s Rainbow (SHOULD WIN)
Levi Kreis, Million Dollar Quartet
Bobby Steggert, Ragtime

This is the most difficult category to predict. I’m not hearing tons of buzz for any of these actors. De Jesus gets the edge for being a part of La Cage and the fact that this is his second nomination and he consistently gives comical, spirited performances. I would give it to Fitzgerald, however, because he was the most entertaining aspect of Finian’s and he’s a massively talented character actor who deserves a Tony.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Barbara Cook, Sondheim On Sondheim
Katie Finneran, Promises, Promises (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN)
Angela Lansbury, A Little Night Music
Lillias White, Fela!
Karine Plantadit, Come Fly Away

It’s unbelievable to say this, but in a category that includes Lansbury, there’s no competition—it’s Finneran for the win.

Best Direction of a Play
Michael Grandage, Red
Sheryl Kaller, Next Fall
Kenny Leon, Fences (WILL WIN)
Gregory Mosher, A View From The Bridge

Best Direction of a Musical
Christopher Ashley, Memphis
Marcia Milgrom Dodge, Ragtime
Terry Johnson, La Cage aux Folles (WILL WIN)
Bill T. Jones, Fela! (SHOULD WIN)

But who really cares, since Michael Mayer isn’t nominated for American Idiot?

Best Choreography
La Cage aux Folles (WILL WIN)
Come Fly Away
Fela! (SHOULD WIN)
Promises, Promises

Best Book of a Musical
Everyday Rapture (WILL WIN)
Fela!
Memphis
Million Dollar Quartet

Best Original Score Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre
The Addams Family
Enron
Fences
Memphis (WILL WIN)

Ugh. No one deserves to win, but Memphis will because it’s the better original score.

Best Orchestrations
La Cage aux Folles
Fela! (SHOULD WIN)
Memphis (WILL WIN)
Promises, Promises

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Red (WILL WIN)
Fences
Present Laughter
The Royal Family

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
The Addams Family
American Idiot (SHOULD WIN)
Fela! (WILL WIN)
La Cage aux Folles

Best Costume Design of a Play
Fences
In The Next Room (or the vibrator play) (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN)
The Royal Family
Lend Me A Tenor

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Fela! (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN)
Memphis
La Cage aux Folles

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Hamlet
Enron
Fences
Red (WILL WIN)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Ragtime
American Idiot (SHOULD WIN)
Fela! (WILL WIN)
La Cage aux Folles

Best Sound Design of a Play
Enron (SHOULD WIN)
Fences (WILL WIN)
A View From The Bridge
Red

Best Sound Design of a Musical
La Cage aux Folles
A Little Night Music
Sondheim On Sondheim
Fela! (WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN)

What do you think, Rushers? Do you think I’m right, or am I way off base with these? Who do you think will take the top categories? Please leave your own predictions in the comments. Please remember to log onto Stage Rush during the Tony Awards this Sunday for live coverage from the Tony press room, behind-the-scenes details with the winners, and show commentary!