2011 Tony Awards: Winner Predictions

The back-and-forth chatter of who will go home a winner on Tony Awards night must come to and end, as the ceremony this Sunday draws closer. Stage Rush predicts the winners below!

AUDIO: Listen to Stage Rush editor Jesse North give his Tony Award predictions on WGHT radio’s “Curtain Call” (hosted by Teisha Bader).

Best Play
Good People
Jerusalem
The Motherf**ker With The Hat
War Horse (WILL WIN)

I’ve heard rumblings of a desire for an American playwright to take the award this year, but War Horse is too commercial and awe-inducing not to win.

 

 

 

 

Best Musical
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
Catch Me If You Can
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act

There’s no contest here; the Mormons have it.

 

 

 

 

Best Revival of a Play
Arcadia
The Importance of Being Earnest
The Merchant of Venice
The Normal Heart (WILL WIN)

 

 

 

 

 

Best Revival of a Musical
Anything Goes (WILL WIN)
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying

I would like to see the tired Anything Goes lose out here, but there isn’t enough critical love for How To Succeed.

 

 

 

 

Best Leading Actor in a Play
Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker With The Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem (WILL WIN)

Bobby Cannavale gained a lot of momentum with voters, but Mark Rylance’s fully-immersive performance will win out.

Best Leading Actress in a Play
Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday (WILL WIN)
Francis McDormand, Good People
Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice
Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy
Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter

Francis McDormand is thought to be the front-runner here, but we could see the young starlet Nina Arianda triumph on Tony night. My bets are on this surprise.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can (WILL WIN)
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla: Queen of the Desert

Hands down, the toughest category to predict this year. Voters will want a Mormon actor to win, but Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells will split the votes. The best odds to go Norbert Leo Butz and Tony Sheldon, and I expect the beloved Butz to take it.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes (WILL WIN)
Beth Leavel, Baby It’s You!
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People In The Picture

The snooziest major category this year. Sutton Foster will win, because she’s a pro and always delivers. If there’s an upset, it’ll come from Patina Miller, who is a shiny, new star.

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart (WILL WIN)
Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Yul Vasquez, The Motherf**ker With The Hat

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart (WILL WIN)
Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves
Judith Light, Lombardi
Joanna Lumley, La Bete
Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf**ker With The Hat

Edie Falco tends to win any award she’s nominated for. However, The House of Blue Leaves doesn’t have a fraction of the love from critics and audiences that The Normal Heart has.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Larroquette, How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O’Malley, The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)

The two Scottsboro Boys actors don’t have a chance, as they’ll split the vote (the nomination is their victory). Rory O’Malley has the upper hand here, but an upset could come from chronic award-winner John Larroquette.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown (WILL WIN)
Tammy Blanchard, How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

Best Direction of a Play
The Merchant of Venice
The Motherf**ker With The Hat
The Normal Heart
War Horse (WILL WIN)

Best Direction of a Musical
Anything Goes
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
The Scottsboro Boys

Best Choreography
Anything Goes (WILL WIN)
The Book of Mormon
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
The Scottsboro Boys

Best Book of a Musical
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
The Scottsboro Boys
Sister Act

Best Original Score Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre
The Book of Mormon
The Scottsboro Boys (WILL WIN)
Sister Act
Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

This will be the shocker of the night. Mormon probably should win this award, and will be expected to do so, but the final collaboration between John Kander and the late Fred Ebb will prove victorious, and will serve as Scottsboro’s umbrella win for the night.

Best Orchestrations
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
Catch Me If You Can
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
The Scottsboro Boys

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Jerusalem (WILL WIN)
The Merchant of Venice
The Motherf**ker With The Hat
War Horse

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Anything Goes
Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
The Scottsboro Boys

Best Costume Design of a Play
Born Yesterday
The Importance of Being Earnest (WILL WIN)
La Bete
The Merchant of Venice

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Anything Goes
The Book of Mormon
Priscilla: Queen of the Desert (WILL WIN)
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Jerusalem
The Merchant of Venice
War Horse (WILL WIN)

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Anything Goes
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
How To Succeed In Business Without Really Trying
The Scottsboro Boys

Best Sound Design of a Play
Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Brief Encounter
Jerusalem
War Horse (WILL WIN)

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Anything Goes
The Book of Mormon (WILL WIN)
Catch Me If You Can
The Scottsboro Boys

What do you think, Rushers? Have I got my predictions pretty on point or am I missing the target in some categories? Who do you think will go home the big winner? What are you most excited to see during the ceremony? Leave all your Tony hype in the comments below!

Follow Stage Rush on Facebook and Twitter, and sign up for the weekly newsletter!